The 2016 Presidential election is just days away and early voting is already happening across the country. For the last four months, we’ve asked sole proprietors, small business owners and entrepreneurs on Thumbtack who they intend to vote for in the upcoming presidential election through our monthly Economic Sentiment Survey, a monthly national poll of thousands of skilled professionals about issues that may affect their work.
The leader with Thumbtack pros? Hillary Clinton. According to our most recent data, 44 percent of Thumbtack pros intend to intend to vote for the former Secretary of State, while 37 percent told us they will be voting for Donald Trump.
As is the case with the population more broadly, small business owners’ gender is a telling predictor of their choice for president: 55 percent of the women we surveyed support Hillary Clinton, while only 38 percent of men do.
Similarly, skilled professionals have very different views about the election, based on their industry. The five professions most likely to support Hillary Clinton include writers / editors, interior designers, wedding planners, chefs / caterers, and photographers. Those most likely to support Donald Trump are general contractors, roofers, landscapers, cleaners, and movers.
Results vary by state, too. Clinton is doing best in Maryland, where 70 percent of our pros prefer Clinton to Trump, while Trump’s top state is Idaho where 79 percent of our pros prefer him to her. In general, the same regional patterns that are present in a broader sample of American appear here: our pros on the West Coast and Northeast are more likely to support Clinton that those in the Midwest and South. (Explore the interactive map below for more detail.)
The bottom line: if Thumbtack pros were the only Americans voting, Clinton would barely eke out an electoral college victory, with our numbers showing she would win 273 electoral college votes to Trump’s 265 (a candidate needs 270 to win).
Every month, Thumbtack’s Economic Sentiment Survey captures the attitudes and perspectives of thousands of business owners from across the country to gauge how they are feeling about the economy and their businesses. Now in its fourth year, this survey provides a unique vantage point on the economy, as respondents are largely mobile service professionals with five or fewer employees who operate in households across the United States. Because they are hard to reach, these professionals are frequently overlooked in other surveys of small businesses.